How Do You Describe Two Years Worth of Work in 60 Seconds?
QUICKLY!
I was really honored to be interviewed by the Richmond Times-Dispatch'sMetro Business section for their piece entitled "Sixty Seconds with..." which profiles local business and professional leaders. I had sixty seconds, of course, to give the central message of "The Naked Portfolio Manager." Take a look at the interview; it will only take a minute.
The true connoisseur of eggs knows the perfect soft boiled egg has a warm, runny yoke and a firm egg white. Cooked just ten seconds too long and the yoke will start to harden. Cooked ten seconds too little and you end up with unappetizing, drippy egg whites. The reason cooks so seldomly prepare this dish properly is because of a lack of attention to detail. In my kitchen, I have conducted a series of experiments to determine the formulae for producing the perfect soft boiled egg. To be able to consistently produce the perfect egg, it's necessary to control as many variables as possible. So remember this:
1. Always use the same pan. 2. Measure the amount of water you put into the pan. 3. Always use the same burner. 4. Ensure the initial water temperature is the same each time. 5. Always place the eggs in the water before you turn on the burner. 6. Never, ever mix different sized eggs. 7. Calculate the amount of water displaced by the eggs to adjust for different sizes. 8. Adjust the cooking time based on the amount of water displaced by the eggs.
In my kitchen, I have determined that if I use the same small metal sauce pan with 40 ounces of cold water placed on the front left burner, the correct cooking time for the perfect soft boiled egg can be calculated based on the formulae below:
Time = 9.2 minutes + EV/K.
. . . where "EV" is the amount of water displaced by the egg and "K" is a constant 30 milliliters. Thus, for an extra large egg that displaces 120 milliliters of water, the cooking time is 13 minutes and 12 seconds. For a medium egg that displaces 80 milliliters of water, the formulae predicts an optimal cooking time of 11 minutes and 52 seconds. Of course, this formulae works for me in my kitchen with the small metal pan. In your kitchen you will have to apply the eight points above and develop your own mathematical formulae.
When most people soft boil eggs, they don't use a scientific approach. They simple guess when they think the egg is ready. This "guessing method" results in very inconsistent results. Unfortunately, those who guess sometimes apply this same haphazard approach to investing.
The Naked Portfolio Manager argues that an empirical, disciplined, consistent process will not only generate better results in the kitchen, but in the long run will help improve your decision-making on much more important things (like investing) as well.
Decision-Making Best Practice #9: If it is a really important decision, don’t trust your intuition. Get the data.
Bob's noteworthy success in the investment field is based upon his in-depth knowledge of decision-making, which he applies in a disciplined, rule-based approach: the application of Statistical Prediction Methods.
