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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Irrational Thinking and the Insidious Effects of Framing

In Choices, Values, and Frames, Nobel Laureates Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky discuss the importance of frames in decision-making. Likewise, the famous Muller-Lyer illusion (below left) shows the significance of frames, and how our brains can be tricked by them.

While line A appears to be longer, this is actually not the case. The way the lines are framed causes us to draw the wrong conclusion. This "trick" applies to more than just optical illusions, however.

For example, in one experiment, subjects were asked to choose between two options: option A, which had a 20% chance of immediate death and an 80% chance of living 30 years, and option B, which guaranteed a normal life that would end in 18 years. Most people selected option B.
Next, the subjects were asked to choose between option C, which had an 80% chance of imminent death and a 20% chance of living 30 years, and option D, which had a 75% chance of imminent death and a 25% chance of a normal life for 18 years. In this case, most respondents chose option C.

Mathematically, option A and C offer the greatest life expectancy. When choosing between option A and option B, people become risk adverse. Facing probable death, people become risk seeking.

Curiously, when choosing between option A and B, the riskier choice has a 25% higher chance of imminent death. When choosing between option C and D, the riskier choice also has a 25% higher chance of imminent death.
You can draw two conclusions from this. First, the way a problem is framed has a lot to do with the decisions people make. And, second, people are irrational.

When he initially was asked about the arrest of Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates, President Obama said while he didn't know what role race played in the arrest, the Cambridge, Mass. police had acted "stupidly." He added this country has a long history of African-Americans and Latinos being stopped disproportionately. Quite understandably, Obama appeared to view the arrest cynically.

Yet it is clear Professor Gates did not act as we would expect a distinguished scholar would. Cambridge police Sgt. Leon Lashley - who is black and was at the scene - supported Sgt. James Crowley's actions 100%. One would suspect from his vantage point as a police officer, he has little tolerance for people who are disrespectful and uncooperative with law enforcement.

Decision-Making Best Practice #8: Always remember we approach problems from a built-in framework. This framework affects how we think about facts and assumptions. Framing often has far more insidious consequences than we would like.

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